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 Halifax publishes 10-year housing history

 

Tuesday, February 26, 2002


 

Research from the Halifax, the UK's largest mortgage lender, covering 720 towns across the UK shows that the average house price has risen by 75% during the last 10 years.

Over this period the biggest house price increases have occurred in Thames Ditton, Surrey (206%) and Teddington, Greater London (194%), whilst the weakest performances over the same period have been seen in Irvine (-5%) and Ardrossan (-6%) in Scotland.

The research also highlights the most expensive and the least expensive areas to live in the country, Gerrards Cross, Buckinghamshire is the most expensive town and Aberdare in South Wales and Wallsend, Tyne & Wear are the least expensive towns.

The main findings of the research are as follows:

There has been a wide variation in the performance of house prices across the country. At the regional level, house prices have risen most rapidly in Northern Ireland (139%) over the last decade. At the other extreme, house prices have risen most slowly in Scotland with a 33% increase over the 10 years.

There has been a marked north/south divide in house price movements on the British mainland since 1991. House prices have risen by significantly more in the four regions that comprise southern England - Greater London, the South East, the South West and East Anglia - than in northern England, Scotland and Wales.

The top 20 is dominated by towns in Greater London and the South East, which account for 13 of the 20. A further five are in Northern Ireland, reflecting the remarkable rise in prices there over the past 10 years. The remaining two towns are Marlborough and Shepton Mallet in the South West.

Towns in northern England and Scotland, accounting for 10 and 9 towns respectively, dominate the bottom 20. The remaining weakest performer is Ammanford in South Wales.

The full listing of the 720 towns further underlines the north/south divide in the housing market over the past 10 years. Towns outside southern England and Northern Ireland are sparsely represented amongst the top half of the table, accounting for only 43 of the 360 towns recording the biggest prices rises in the past 10 years.

Lymm, Cheshire is the town in northern England experiencing the biggest rise in prices since 1991 and, at 60th, is the only northern town in the UK top 100. Moreover, the four top performing northern English towns are all in Cheshire. St Andrews and Galashiels are the only Scottish representatives in the top 300. Whilst only Cardiff and neighbouring Penarth represent Wales in the top 300. Otley, West Yorkshire and Berwick upon Tweed are the only towns in northern England outside Cheshire to appear in the top 300.

Likewise there is little southern representation in the bottom half of the table, which is overwhelmingly dominated by towns in northern England, Scotland and Wales. Newcastle under Lyme, Tipton in the West Midlands and Matlock, Derbyshire are the only towns outside these parts of the UK to appear in the bottom 100.

Polegate, East Sussex is the worst performer in the South East, ranked at 481st. Despite its relatively low ranking, prices in the town have increased by a still healthy 50% over the past 10 years.

Gerrards Cross, Buckinghamshire is the most expensive town in the UK with an average house price of nearly £378,000 followed by Esher, Surrey with an average price of £376,000. These two towns were also the most expensive, albeit in the opposite order, 10 years ago. Indeed, four of the current five most expensive towns were in the top five 10 years ago. Thames Ditton is the new entry, having risen from 32nd. Ascot has dropped out of the top five to 18th.

The 82 most expensive towns in the UK are all in Greater London and the South East. The most expensive town outside this part of the country is Lymm, Cheshire with an average price of nearly £205,000.

Aberdare in South Wales and Wallsend, Tyne & Wear are the least expensive towns in the country in which to buy a property. The average price in both towns is nearly £43,000. Accordingly, one can buy nearly nine properties in Aberdare and Wallsend for the price of one property in the UK's most expensive town, Gerrards Cross.

Martin Ellis, Halifax Group Economist, commented: "Although there has been a huge variation in house price growth across the country, there is little doubt that homeowners have done very well over the past 10 years. The scale of the increase in house prices in many of the country's towns over the last 10 years demonstrates that residential property is a very good long-term investment. In the overwhelming majority of towns in the UK, house prices have risen by more than the 30% increase in retail prices over the period."

Table of top 20 post-towns by % increase

Table of top 20 post-towns by % increase

   

Average Price £

1991 - 2001

Post-town

Region

1991

2001

Increase £

Increase
%

Thames Ditton South East

111,833

342,262

230,429

206

Teddington Greater London

110,872

326,168

215,296

194

Shepton Mallet South West

54,421

156,818

102,397

188

Thame South East

87,868

249,721

161,853

184

Lisburn Northern Ireland

38,256

106,816

68,560

179

Newry Northern Ireland

32,976

91,586

58,610

178

Hove South East

56,926

156,545

99,619

175

Weybridge South East

119,708

329,107

209,399

175

Bangor, Co. Down

Northern Ireland

39,751

107,444

67,693

170

Egham South East

83,887

224,086

140,199

167

Belfast Northern Ireland

37,251

99,044

61,793

166

Windsor South East

100,421

266,766

166,345

166

Surbiton Greater London

80,709

213,694

132,985

165

Brighton South East

57,993

152,823

94,830

164

Newtownards Northern Ireland

37,341

97,299

59,958

161

Buckingham South East

78,588

202,937

124,349

158

Tring South East

88,438

228,238

139,800

158

Twickenham Greater London

107,865

276,807

168,942

157

Marlborough South West

107,688

270,209

162,521

151

Epping South East

95,834

239,481

143,647

150

Table of bottom 20 post-towns by % increase/decrease

   

Average Price £

1991 - 2001

Post-town

Region

1991

2001

Increase/Decrease £

Increase/Decrease
%

Alexandria Scotland

54,935

60,864

5,929

11

Wishaw Scotland

45,889

50,787

4,898

11

Sowerby Bridge

Yorks & The Humber

65,776

72,322

6,546

10

Newton Aycliffe North

59,189

65,075

5,886

10

Carluke Scotland

57,067

62,400

5,333

9

Driffield

Yorks & The Humber

63,174

68,764

5,590

9

Blackpool North West

53,370

57,915

4,545

9

Paisley Scotland

51,445

55,657

4,212

8

Hebburn North

40,817

43,863

3,046

7

Batley

Yorks & The Humber

51,231

54,311

3,080

6

Clydebank Scotland

49,221

51,992

2,771

6

Fleetwood North West

51,282

53,738

2,456

5

Ammanford Wales

48,624

49,902

1,278

3

Grangemouth Scotland

43,498

44,588

1,090

3

Dukinfield North West

58,652

59,920

1,268

2

Denny Scotland

52,655

53,585

930

2

Redcar North

58,752

59,621

869

1

Cottingham

Yorks & The Humber

81,883

77,865

-4,018

-5

Irvine Scotland

51,216

48,560

-2,656

-5

Ardrossan Scotland

49,935

47,000

-2,935

-6

Table of top 10 post-towns by 2001 average price

   

Average Price £

1991 - 2001
Post-town

Region

1991

2001

Increase/Decrease £

Increase/Decrease
%

Gerrards Cross South East

185,201

377,604

192,403

104

Esher South East

214,108

376,318

162,210

76

Great Missenden South East

170,408

344,377

173,969

102

Thames Ditton South East

111,833

342,262

230,429

206

Henley On Thames

South East

175,320

340,052

164,732

94

Richmond, London Greater London

144,931

338,411

193,480

133

Weybridge South East

119,708

329,107

209,399

175

Teddington Greater London

110,872

326,168

215,296

194

Leatherhead South East

147,224

294,994

147,770

100

Tadworth South East

132,234

289,931

157,697

119

Table of bottom 10 post-towns by 2001 average price

   

Average Price £

1991 - 2001
Post-town

Region

1991

2001

Increase/Decrease £

Increase/Decrease
%

Ebbw Vale Wales

36,377

46,571

10,194

28

Peterlee North

36,889

46,518

9,629

26

Merthyr Tydfil Wales

32,580

45,796

13,216

41

Lochgelly Scotland

37,359

44,829

7,470

20

Grangemouth Scotland

43,498

44,588

1,090

3

Hebburn North

40,817

43,863

3,046

7

Bootle North West

36,895

43,780

6,885

19

Seaham North

32,805

43,051

10,246

31

Wallsend North

35,876

42,741

6,865

19

Aberdare Wales

34,461

42,623

8,162

24

 

HOUSING MARKET BACKGROUND - THE LAST 10 YEARS

The UK economy in 1992

Ten years ago the UK economy was in the grips of a recession. Unemployment was increasing sharply, rising to 2.9 million at the end of 1992. Mortgage rates had fallen from their peak of 15.4% in 1990 but, at 10.95% in February 1992, were still almost double their current level.

The UK housing market in 1992

The UK housing market was also in a slump. Nationally, prices fell by 8% in 1992 and transactions totalled only 1.1 million, marking the lowest level of turnover in the market since 1974, and a far cry from the record of 2.1 million in 1988. The number of properties taken into possession had soared from 16,000 in 1989 to 69,000 in 1991 and the number of households with negative equity was climbing significantly, reaching a peak of almost 2 million towards the end of 1992.

The housing market over the past 10 years

House prices stabilised in 1993 but subsequently fell again in 1994 and 1995. Thereafter, the market began a genuine recovery with a 7% increase in prices in 1996. The market has been particularly buoyant over the last three years, driven by a combination of strong economic growth, low and falling unemployment and low interest rates.

Housing affordability

The average house price in the UK currently stands at a multiple of 4.0 times average earnings in the country. This is above the average of 3.6 recorded since 1983 when the Halifax House Price Index began, but is comfortably below the 5.0 peak in mid 1989. The cut in interest rates over the past year has reduced mortgage payments as a proportion of gross earnings for the average purchaser in the UK from 22% to 15% in the last 12 months. Consequently, mortgage payments account for a smaller share of income than at anytime since 1983.

Prospects for 2002

This largely favourable affordability situation will continue to support housing demand during 2002. The manufacturing sector's ongoing recession, and the prospects of rising unemployment and higher interest rates later in the year, are, however, likely to constrain the market. Overall, house prices in the UK are predicted to increase by around 5% this year.

For further information and local breakdowns, please visit the Halifax website:
http://www.hbosplc.com/media/pressreleases/archive.asp?section=halifax

 
 
     
     
 

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