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 CML still sees soft landing for housing market

 

Monday, June 17, 2002


The Council of Mortgage Lenders today re-iterated its view that the current rapid rate of house price increase is unsustainable. It also acknowledged the Bank of England's comments yesterday that the longer prices continue to rise rapidly, the more likely it is that there will be a sharper correction to the housing market. But it continues to believe that a combination of affordability constraints and modest increases in interest rates will produce a soft landing for the housing market.

The Director General of the CML Michael Coogan said: "The growth of house prices has been much stronger and lasted longer than we expected. But it clearly cannot continue at the current rate indefinitely. We expect the monetary policy committee to move on interest rates sooner rather than later. An early increase in the base rate would help to rein back the growth in consumer spending. Expectations of higher interest rates would also dampen conditions in the housing market and a little pain for borrowers now will help avoid the need for a more severe remedy later on."

Although affordability is becoming more of an issue for buyers, low interest rates have ensured that mortgage payments remain a relatively low proportion of income. Borrowers should remember that even if interest rates do rise, the outlook is for much less volatility in rates than we have seen in the past. For the vast majority, mortgages will remain affordable as prices begin to slow and the housing market moves on to a sounder footing for the future."

The CML is due to announce new figures from its Survey of Mortgage Lenders on 24 June. The Survey has produced record figures for gross mortgage lending in each of the last two months and, given reported figures for mortgage approvals, the CML is expecting another set of buoyant lending figures in June.

 
 
     
     
 

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