A new report looks at what England will be like in 2020 and suggests that the nature of the countryside will change radically. It warns that economic needs must be balanced with environmental and social concerns to prevent a huge divide taking place.

Four policy scenarios were studied asking questions such as: who will live in the countryside in 2020? How will rural people earn their living? What will the quality of life in the countryside be?

The study, which was undertaken for the Countryside Agency, predicts that and more farmers will leave the rural landscape, while city dwellers will move in to escape congestion, stress and pressures like the fear of terrorism.

This could bring about a revival in the countryside - with people choosing to live, work from home and spend money in rural areas.

The downside is the affect of traffic - with roads becoming choked with cars and crime continuing to increase, just the things people wanted to escape from.

The four scenarios

The research team advising the Countryside Agency identified four scenarios for the future of rural England. All assume sustained economic growth but they differ in the emphasis on social and environmental consideration.

None of the scenarios are radically different or shocking, they represent paths that diverge incrementally now, reflecting the cumulative effect of many, many individual choices:

• In ‘The countryside means business’ rural economies grow but at the expense of environmental and social sustainability. There are pressures for more roads, housing to combat labour shortages and more intensive agricultural production. Many prosper but income gaps widen, people feel excluded from decision makers and developers are increasingly at odds with environmentalists.
• ‘Go for green’ describes a more environmentally sustainable future, but one in which the English countryside is more socially fragmented. Meeting targets for brownfield development is prioritised, planning gain is tilted away from homes for the poor towards building in recycling and energy efficiency: planning guidelines favour urban extensions, tax breaks and road charging are used to limit growth, and substantial sums to farmers to raise environmental standards.
• ‘All on board’ is a scenario in which labour shortages, traffic congestion and a shift in values combine to place more emphasis on social cohesion. It includes a relaxation of planning controls to allow more extensive and dispersed developments, planning gain used to ‘pack in’ affordable homes. Congestion leads to big rises in tele-working, leading to more working from home and local networking, with more emphasis on investment in those at the edge of labour market.
• In ‘The triple whammy’, economic, social and environmental sustainability combine. The economy changes direction radically to become both greener and more inclusive. Many homes are still built in the countryside, but with an emphasis on concentrated developments, strategic dispersal of settlements, affordable homes and design. As broadband matures, services are decentralised and village life begins to revive.

Whilst the latter is the scenario most people are likely to want, the report points out this will be very demanding and expensive, calling for high levels of skills and collaboration.