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 Could the great flood happen again?

 

Monday, February 03, 2003


Over the weekend communities and families the length of the east coast, from the River Tees to the Thames Estuary joined in remembrance of loved ones, friends and neighbours who lost their lives when over 1,000 miles of coastline were hit by a huge storm surge on the night of 31 January 1953.

In total 307 people died, 24,000 homes were damaged or destroyed and over 30,000 people were evacuated in what has been described as the worst national peacetime disaster to hit the UK.

Exceptional weather conditions, coupled with poor telecommunications and the fact that there was no single body responsible for flood warnings, meant that whole communities were given insufficient warning of the advancing threat.

Today, over 734,000 homes and around 70,000 business properties in England and Wales are at risk from coastal flooding. According to the Environment Agency, however, the risk of a disaster on the scale of the 1953 floods has been significantly reduced due to the billions of pounds spent on flood defence and warning systems.

But could it happen again?

Liz Cook, the Environment Agency’s flood awareness campaign manager said:

"Understandably, people want to know if this is likely to happen again. It is important to recognise that the weather conditions on the fateful night of Saturday 31 January 1953 were very unusual. While surges sweep the coast three or four times a year, they rarely coincide with high tides and bad weather as they did in 1953.”

"People are much better protected than ever before. But we should not be complacent. Today we can manage the risk better but we can never eliminate it.”

The prime reasons it could happen again:

  • Surges of about one metre sweep the East coast three or four times a year, but they rarely coincide with high tides and bad weather as they did in 1953.
  • Britain is tilting – the East coast is sinking into the sea at a rate of 150mm every 100 years. At the same time, the impact of climate change may cause a sea level rise.
  • With the predicted increase in stormy weather, also due to climate change, coastal flooding risks are likely to increase.

Are people still at risk?

So the causes of flooding have marginally become worse and a severe incident could happen again. However the risk to people and property has improved.

  • Over 734,000 homes and almost 70,600 business properties are at risk from coastal and tidal flooding in England and Wales.
  • The risk to life and property has been significantly reduced by measures taken as a direct result of the 1953 disaster.
  • Provision of flood defence in England and Wales became the responsibility of a single body- the National Rivers Authority, (NRA) in 1989 and subsequently in 1996 the Environment Agency, with the added responsibility for flood warning.
  • The Thames Barrier, the world’s largest movable flood barrier was erected in 1982 to protect London from tidal flooding.
  • The Met Office established the Storm Tide Forecasting Service (STFS) which provides the Environment Agency with 24-hour forecasts of coastal flooding, surge and wave activity.


How are people protected today?

  • The Environment Agency provides and maintains more than 34,000 km of river and coastal defences in England and Wales.
  • The Agency is investing around £370 million this year in flood defence. Since the autumn 2000 floods, the Agency has built 70km of new or improved defences on rivers and the coast, reducing the risk for an additional 250,000 people.
  • The Government has announced an increase in funding over the next four years that will reach an additional £150million over current levels in 2005/6 to provide better flood protection.
  • The Environment Agency monitors river, sea and weather conditions 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.
  • The Agency operates a flood warning service to around 774,000 properties in England and Wales which aims to give people 2 hours advance warning of an impending flood, or more where possible.
  • Flood warnings are issued through the media, through the Agency’s 24-hour ‘Floodline’ telephone service, on the internet and direct to people most at risk by telephone using Automated Voice Messaging.

 
 
     
     
 

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