Hotter summers and rising sea levels will affect the islands around the UK and Ireland, according to a new report on climate change.

The report, published by the British-Irish Council says increasing summer temperatures and rising sea levels will affect all the major islands - the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Western Isles, Orkney Islands, and Shetland Isles.

Islands in the south of the region will be hardest hit – summer temperatures in the Channel Islands could rise by 4 degrees Centigrade by the end of the century, while summer rainfall could drop by nearly half.

Meanwhile, the frequency of hot summer days in the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man is predicted to increase four- to five-fold and there could be a 70 - 85 % reduction in frosts.

Days of heavy precipitation may increase by 30 - 50 % in winter, but decrease 40 - 50 % in summer. Rising sea levels are expected to lead to higher storm surges, especially for the Channel Islands.

The results come from a new model developed by scientists at the Hadley Centre (part of the Met Office). The model is detailed enough to examine for the first time how climate change will affect some of the small islands. Taking account some of the uncertainties in the predictions, the report can now be used to prepare different regions and sectors of the economy for the impacts of climate change.

Welcoming the report on behalf of his fellow Ministers on the BIC Environment Group, Defra Minister for Environment & Agri-Environment, Elliot Morley said:

"Today's report shows that temperatures are already rising in many parts of the UK, Ireland and the surrounding islands and will continue to increase right across the region. This covers a distance of around 1300km, stretching from the Channel Islands in the south to the Shetland Isles in the north, and 800km from Slea Head in the West to Lowestoft in the East.”

"The report helps provide the most detailed picture we have ever had of how the whole region's climate will change. It is vital that everyone uses it to prepare for the impacts of climate change, because we will all be affected - the local authority investing in a sea wall, the company managing the water supply, or the farmer deciding on which crops to plant.”

"There are clear implications for tourism, leisure and business. Initiatives such as the co- operation within the British-Irish Council are proving invaluable in raising awareness and giving us a better picture of how our region will be affected by climate change."

"But we must remember that adapting to the effects of climate change is not a replacement for cutting back on greenhouse emissions. The UK and Ireland have both ratified the Kyoto Protocol, taking on legally binding emissions reduction or limitation targets. But much greater cuts will be needed if we are to avoid the most serious impacts of climate change in the future."