The house price bubble is deflating, argue some analysts. Not a bubble burst, you understand, just a slow release of pressure, deflating the bubble slowly.

The data from the Office for the Deputy Prime Minister out this week (see below) certainly shows evidence of a cooling off and the Land Registry report we published yesterday said that although prices rose steadily toward the end of last year, the rate is slowing.

But estate agents and mortgage companies are looking on the bright side at the moment forecasting anything between 6 and 10 percent growth this year. And January, normally a slow month, has been promising, they report.

A cooling is what the Bank of England wants, but the interest rate increase to 4% last week, will take some time to affect the housing market. As of yet it does not look like a deflating bubble, merely a pause for breath as the pressure in the balloon gets higher.

ODPM figures for December

• The mix-adjusted average house price in the UK in December 2003 stood at £162,689, up from £159,480 in November (not seasonally adjusted).
• UK annual house price inflation in December 2003 was 8.3 per cent, down from 9.7 per cent in November.
• Annual house price inflation in London was 3.8 per cent in December 2003, down from 5.2 per cent in November.

House price inflation: regional

The UK house price inflation rate fell from 9.7 per cent in November to 8.3 per cent in December. Although there was an increase of 2.0 per cent in prices between November and December, prices rose by 3.3 per cent over the same period last year, and this difference has caused the fall in the inflation rate.

Of the four home countries, only Northern Ireland saw a rise in annual inflation, up from 3.4 per cent in November to 5.9 per cent. Annual inflation in Wales, at 17.9 per cent, and in Scotland, at 15.2 per cent, remains higher than in England.

Annual inflation in England fell from 9.2 per cent in November to 7.7 per cent in December, and this decrease was reflected in all the English regions except for the East and Yorkshire and the Humber.

House price inflation in the North East, at 19.0 per cent and the Yorkshire and the Humber at 17.7 per cent, remain substantially higher than in the rest of England. By contrast, inflation in London, the East, the South East, South West and West Midlands were all under 10 per cent, with the lowest rate shown in London, at 3.8 per cent.

House prices: regional

• By country, the mix-adjusted average house prices in December were £172,789 in England, £115,629 in Wales, £101,494 in Scotland and £104,168 in Northern Ireland.
• The English region with the highest average house price in December was London at £245,859. The lowest average price was in the North East at £105,285.
• Only the East, London, South East and the South West had average prices above the UK average.

House price inflation: type of buyer

• The UK house price inflation rate for first time buyers fell to 6.2 per cent in December from 7.3 per cent in November.
• The inflation rate for former owner occupiers also fell, from 11.1 per cent in November to 9.6 per cent in December. This is the lowest rate seen this year, and compares with a rate of 25.8 per cent seen in April.
• The average house price in the UK for first time buyers stood at £127,474 in December, while the average price paid by former owner occupiers stood at £186,366.