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 Surprise bounce-back in house price inflation

 

Thursday, July 29, 2004


Following an easing during May and June, house price inflation accelerated again in July with prices rising 2.1%, said Nationwide today. This took the price of the typical property to £154,299, up 20.3% on a year earlier.

 

July

June

Monthly index (seasonally adjusted) Q1 1993=100

304.5

298.1

Monthly change (seasonally adjusted)

2.1%

0.9%

Annual change

20.3%

19.1%

Average price

£154,299

£151,524

Commenting on the figures Alex Bannister, Nationwide's Group Economist said: “July's increase outstripped our expectation that prices would rise in the 0.5-1% range for the rest of the year and appears to have been driven by continued buoyancy in the more affordable sectors and regions of the market.”

“In particular, the regional growth pattern that emerged last quarter remains in place, with prices rising fastest in Scotland, the North and Wales. Nevertheless, the South, particularly around Greater London is seeing an improving labour market, resulting in a modest resurgence in price growth.”

"Whilst recent anecdotal and survey evidence have suggested the housing market might be starting to slow, our own house price data accords with the recent strength of retail sales and mortgage lending. It is unclear whether the slowdown is yet to translate into hard data, or whether sentiment will prove to have been overly-negative. Previous downturns in anecdotal and survey evidence have not always translated into significant downturns in price growth, especially when they have not been accompanied by a deterioration in the economy - for example in the second half of 2001 and the first half of 2003. This means that considerable uncertainty over the direction of the housing market remains.”

"UK homes have already risen by 12% this year, so our forecast for house price inflation, which remains 15% for the time-being, is likely to be reviewed over the next couple of months."

 
 
     
     
 

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