Interest rates to peak early next year?

Interest rates to peak early next year?

Monday, July 05, 2004

While attention today is focussed on what the Bank of England might do with interest rates this Thursday, several sources are predicting interest rates may peak at around 5.25% early next year.

Two surveys of economists indicate that the Monetary Policy Committee is not expected to raise the repro rate this week, with only three out of 83 economists predicting a rise.

Most economists agree the MPC will wait until august to see the effect of the half-point increase in the last two months will dampen consumer spending.

“They'll want to see how much of a slowdown in the housing market they've caused with the half percentage point over the last two months and judge what has changed,” Don Egginton, chief economist at Daiwa Institute of Research told Bloomberg.

Most experts now predict that the Bank will delay a further rate rise until August and that rates will peak at 5.25% early next year, although one, Michael Saunders, chief West European economist at Citigroup Inc., expected rates to peak at 5.5% next year.

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