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 Bean dodges the data difficulty

 

Friday, November 26, 2004


Talk of interest rates having peaked makes no sense while there are considerable uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook, the Bank of England's chief economist Charles Bean has warned.

The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee has raised interest rates five times in the past year and commentators have increasingly taken the view that there are no more hikes in the pipeline following growing evidence that the housing market has turned.

Speaking at a town partnership meeting in Essex, Bean said, "Neither I nor my colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee know how the data will unfold over the coming months and quarters, and it is the data that will determine where interest rates go next."

Bean said that there were good reasons why house prices now average six times annual average earnings as compared with the historic multiple of four times. "The transition to a low inflation, low interest rate environment has shifted the real burden of repayments for a typical mortgage into the future, so making it easier initially for cash-strapped households to service a loan of a given size," he said.

Also, said the chief economist, "disillusion" with the stock market and apprehension over pensions performance had led to an increased demand for property.

Bean warned there was considerable uncertainty about the extent and duration in the slowing of house price inflation and also the strength of the connection with consumer demand.

"Nevertheless," he said, "it is difficult to rationalise the full extent of the increase in house prices and it is likely that the ratio of house prices to earnings will probably continue to ease for a while, though a return to historical norms seems unlikely."

 
 
     
     
 

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