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 Mixed messages in the housing market

 

Tuesday, November 09, 2004


Key market indicators are in conflict with market observations, suggests Hamptons International in its November Property Market Observations.

Autumn leaves are falling, the weather is cooling and, with them, house prices and demand. Last month the Nationwide reported that UK home values dropped for the first time in three years. The British Bankers Association also reported a 29% fall in mortgage approvals to 59,905 in September over the same period last year. Repossessions climbed to their highest level for over 4 years. All key indicators of the health of the market, and all suggesting doom and gloom.

The main reasons reported for this slowdown are:

  • A deterioration in affordability for homeowners (who are now facing a tough time trading up)
  • A decline in confidence in the market
  • Weak wage growth
  • Interest rate rises to a three-year high of 4.75%, with more expected.

Not surprisingly there is also declining demand among buy-to-let investors, and first time buyers are still having a pretty miserable time (although at least prices are becoming more affordable for them).

However, despite the reported slowdown in the property market, most commentators rule out any possibility of a crash. The National Institute of Economic & Social Research recently reported that U.K. house prices growth (25% in 2002 and 15% in 2003) will advance 10% this year and 4% next year before aligning with consumer-price inflation in 2006, until about 2014. They also cite declining confidence in the market and a widening gap between house prices and earnings as reasons for the slowdown.

Nor does the Nationwide foresee a sustained period of decline, as the economy is growing quickly and the jobs market remains strong, predicting instead more subdued levels of turnover and price growth.

Hamptons Sales Director David Adams goes further; he believes that the underlying market remains healthier than many pundits are suggesting and cites some credible reasons:

  • At least 50% of sellers have reduced their prices and they are seeing activity from genuinely interested purchasers.
  • There are far more sales taking place above £1,000,000 this year than last year and the market over £2.5 million is strong.
  • Although fewer in number, the £ value of sales across country branches is at a similar level to last year, indicating more high value sales.

"Additionally," says Adams, "data from our UK network reveals that the number of properties withdrawn from the market was 8% lower than last year, and fall throughs were 17% lower. Certainly not signs of a panicked market."

The 50% of sellers who have not reduced their prices sufficiently to attract active buyers in the market appear to be thinking that it will recover in the spring and that they will be better off to wait and see. Adams points out that, historically, the months leading up to an election are quieter, as buyers wait to see the economic reaction to the result.

“An election is likely to be called between February and May so a significant price bounce in the spring is pretty unlikely,” he says.

Either way, the slowdown in house prices at least takes pressure off the Bank of England to further increase rates to cool the market and thereby avoid the risk of an 'abrupt' correction, which is some consolation for beleaguered homeowners.

The resulting confusion from conflicting media reports is evident across our network. Mary Robinson in the Wimbledon office sums this up:

“With so much contradictory information coming from various respectable sources, many people are confused about the market where they are. One thing is certain: the picture is mixed depending on where you live. Sometimes there are even dramatic differences between neighbouring streets.”

 
 
     
     
 

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