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Housing market levelling off
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Wednesday, February 16, 2005 |
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‘Stabilising’ best describes the property market this month, according to Hamptons. The firm says there are several strong indications from diverse and respected sources that the property market is levelling off:
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Following the Halifax report that house prices rebounded in December, Nationwide reported an unexpected 0.4% increase in home values in January, observing that "sentiment may be about to turn positive" after six months of price stability.
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Mortgage approvals rose in December, the first monthly increase since May, adding to evidence that the property market is stabilising.
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Hometrack commented that house prices "may at last be stabilising after over half a year of house price falls".
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A report in the Guardian newspaper stated that house prices might rise 4% this year and 6% in 2006, citing a survey by independent consultants U.K. Housing Economics.
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The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee said in last month's rate-setting meeting that recent house-price indicators have been stronger than expected, suggesting that the five interest-rate increases since November 2003 won't lead to a slump. “There are signs that things are stabilising,” said Nick Verdi at Barclays Capital. “If the housing market data continues in this vein the MPC can look at other areas of the economy and get less worried about the housing market.''
Whilst not all analysts are optimistic, most would now agree that the risk of a property market crash is highly unlikely. "This is the way the housing market seems to be going, cautious buyers but no forced sellers," said John Butler at HSBC. "The correction in the housing market that has to come is more likely to take the form of low transactions than tumbling prices."
Indeed this is what Hamptons' 50 branches have been seeing. Despite the fall in transactions and activity over the past few months, they have consistently reported the view that the underlying market appears stronger than media reports had been suggesting, with those (albeit fewer) buyers in the market remaining very motivated. Inevitably there will be a lull during the election period in May, but we would expect the market to pick up again afterwards.
It is indisputable that low interest rates are sustaining the housing market and keeping transactions flowing; if interest rates were to increase significantly it would almost certainly result in a major market correction. But rates are expected to remain low. Jonathan Cornell, technical director at Hamptons International Mortgages, observes that LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate), which serves as a useful pointer of the City's expectations, suggests that the base rate is likely to increase by 0.25% in the next 12 months, and that if it does happen this increase is likely to occur in the next quarter.
Data from Hamptons' branch network shows that the anticipated and seasonally traditional influx of New Year vendors has not yet materialised:
This is very good news for vendors. This will exacerbate the problem of shortages of quality stock in many areas, which will in turn help to sustain prices in these regions as more buyers, faced with less choice, compete for the best properties.
Hamptons have been advising prospective vendors that the early part of this year is likely to be the best time to sell and now is the time to put their properties on the market. This month’s data reinforces this point; the number of new properties may be over 20% lower than last January but the number of new buyers is only 12% lower. Similarly, if we compare activity against December we see that new stock coming onto the market was 144% higher in January, but the number of new buyers registering was 273% higher.
But vendors must not be lulled into a feeling that it is again becoming a sellers market. Competition to attract the best buyers is fierce and relies on good marketing and accurate, realistic pricing. Buyers are very cautious and they will not overpay, except possibly in circumstances when they find their ideal home and do not want to lose it, or when they are determined to move but are faced with a shortage of stock in their chosen area.
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