Vast sums of public money could be saved and the quality of life for millions improved if local authorities were to catch declining areas before they reach a crucial ‘tipping point’ and spiral downwards.
A new RICS report, Spot the Grot, Stop the Rot, proposes a checklist of 12 indicators which collectively show how close an area is to its tipping point.
The report says that levels graffiti, litter, anti-social behaviour orders, vacant properties, voter turnout, standards of local shops, property prices and standards of health and education must be measured and monitored. Together they make up a neighbourhood health-check that will allow local authorities and community groups to act before problems become irreversible.
RICS wants local authorities to develop these into a practical urban management system that will give early warning of areas in the danger zone. Abandonment has occurred in many parts of the North and Midlands, leading the government to launch its Pathfinder initiative.
The Clean Neighbourhoods and Environments Bill currently being championed by the government will allow councils to levy on-the-spot fines for litter and graffiti as well as tackling issues like nuisance alleyways and night-time noise.
RICS says that as well as addressing the symptoms, government should be addressing the causes of decline and ensuring that vulnerable communities are safeguarded through better local, urban management.
Ken Dytor, RICS regeneration and CEO of Urban Catalyst spokesman, says: "Decline doesn’t begin across a neighbourhood instantaneously. It tends to start in pockets, then spread. Once an area falls past a certain point, it is difficult and very expensive to turn things around. Spot the Grot provides the basis of a practical toolkit that could enable local authorities to spend public money a lot smarter."
A number of common factors characterise areas in danger of abandonment:
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Unemployment rates twice the national average and below average wages
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A vacancy rate of over 4.5% of properties
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Low property prices – below £30,000 an refurbishment is no longer worthwhile
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Graffiti and litter measured by incidence of fly tipping
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Declining local shops
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Voter turnouts of less than 15%
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Above 200 recorded crimes per 1000 individuals
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Housing unfitness level of above 8%
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Levels of long – term illness 10% higher than, and good health 10% lower than the national average
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Poor education attainment measured by GCSE and A - level results
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Levels of above 50% pre – World War One housing
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Sharp increase in housing rented out, especially to benefit claimants.