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 Doom-mongers are ‘endangered species’

 

Friday, July 22, 2005


A forecaster modelling the UK housing market has predicted a period of relative stability in the housing market over the next five-or-so years and says that it has identified two new ‘endangered species’ in the process.

‘Housing market doom-mongers’ and ‘well-heeled hot-hatch-driving estate agents’ are likely to be on the decline, says the Centre for Economics and Business Research in it’s weekly briefing for business planners.

The Housing Futures 2025 research predicts a period of relative stability in the housing market over the next five-or-so years. Average house prices are unlikely to rise above their current levels until 2010, and the number of sales is likely to fall in the next three years, only starting to recover from 2010.

However, looking to the longer term, CEBR still believe residential property is a sensible investment especially compared to many other asset classes available to the public.

The briefing claimed, "There remain a number of vocal and well-publicised doom-mongers who argue that house prices are over-valued to the tune of up to 30 per cent. But, as we have been saying consistently for the past 4½ years, the underlying supply and demand conditions - higher rates of immigration, smaller and fewer family units, lower rates of interest and little new house-building - do support valuations around where we stand currently. So far, we have been proved right and little has changed to make us vary our prognosis."

But even a static housing market is bad news for everyone’s favourite profession, estate agency. Last year, the number of jobs in ‘real estate activities’ - many of which are residential estate agents - reached 180,800 nationally; up 26 per cent in just five years.

CEBR expect this number to fall by almost 13,000 (seven per cent) by 2007 before partially recovering thereafter.

For those looking to move home in the near future, you may be hampered by a soft market - further compounded by often significant stamp duty bills and now the cost of producing a buyers’ pack. But, you will be able to negotiate hard on estate agent fees.

And, finally, expect fleets of reasonably-priced second-hand BMW Minis and VW Beetles (all in need of a respray) on the forecourts soon.

 
 
     
     
 

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