Britons’ Christmas spend on gifts will fall by £400m this year, the first fall for ten years. So while a Darth Vader helmet may be tipped for one of the top kids’ presents, your average Christmas stocking may yet see a small black hole lurking in the toe.

In 2004, predicted spend on gifts at Christmas was £15.1 billion, but this year consumers will tighten their purse strings and spend will fall by £400m to £14.7 billion according to the retail survey out today from the business advisory firm Deloitte.

Compared to last year, there will be marginal growth in spend on food and drink (£7.6 billion, up 1.3% on 2004) and a rise in spend on socialising (£6.8 billion, up 5.9% on 2004).

This is the first year since 1995 that a significant increase in overall spending at Christmas has not been predicted. The survey in its 11th year, looks at the spending habits and moods of consumers and retailers ahead of the Christmas period.

Consumer spend forecast

The average consumer will spend £310 on gifts this year. Regional breakdown of the figures reveals the Welsh are the most generous and will spend on average £359 on gifts, compared to the East Anglians who intend to part with just £266. People in Yorkshire will tighten their belts the most this Christmas and expect to spend the least on gifts (£276) compared to last year (£372).

Breakdown of spend by age shows 35-44 year olds will spend the most, on average £419 each, and 23% of this group plan to spend between £500-£1,000. This contrasts with the findings from 1995 when the 25-34 age group were shown to be the highest spenders, perhaps reflecting the demographic shift towards having children later.

Most wanted gifts for kids

The most wanted gifts by kids under 12 is computer games, followed by consoles. The good news for parents is there is not likely to be one overall winner in the Christmas toy race this year, instead several items will compete for the top spot.

Mobile phone ring tones, Roboraptor and the Darth Vader Voice Changer Helmet are all likely to be amongst the biggest sellers of the festive season. In addition, for older children (and indeed some adults who haven’t grown up yet), there will be a significant demand for the new must have toys which include Microsoft’s new Xbox 360 and Sony’s PlayStation Portable.

Paying for Christmas

This year’s findings suggest consumers are exercising more caution when it comes to paying for Christmas. 80% of us will pay for the majority of Christmas shopping using either cash or debit cards, suggesting credit card usage for Christmas is in decline.

The Scots will use cash as a payment method (88% compared to 79% in 2004) and 84% of those that do have credit cards don’t plan to take on more credit this Christmas. Despite household debt rising above one trillion, the figures suggest we are less happy to use credit than last year.