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Council taxes in England are to rise by an average of 4.5%, according to a survey by the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA).
The analysis was undertaken by the CIPFA on behalf of the Radio 4 Today programme and revealed a likely average Band-D home bill rise of between £53 and £1,250.
However, the increase, based on responses from more than half of all charging authorities, would still represent the second lowest rise in a decade.
CIPFA chief executive Steve Freer warned that Whitehall's grip on town hall funding was tightening even as politicians promised more devolution.
"These are fascinating results," he said. "They show both Government and local authorities working hard to manage and contain local tax increases."
Mr Freer continued: "Increasingly the level at which the Local Government Minister threatens capping intervention – this year a tax increase of more than 5% - appears to be the dominant influence shaping local budgets. In that sense we are back to universal capping."
"If a much stronger sense of localism is to emerge over the next two or three years, it clearly will be necessary to make significant changes to councils' current funding arrangements."
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