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 The State of the September Market

 

Friday, September 20, 2002


FSA Mortgage Regulation - how will it help consumers?     SiteFeatures: Viewpoints: The state of the September property market


The state of the September property market

This week's feature comes courtesy of AMD PR - a public relations agency with a glittering array of clients from the commercial and residential property industries. A number of these clients - nationwide residential developer Crest Nicholson, residential developer Try Homes, national sales and lettings agent Lane Fox, specialist Hampshire agent Hill & Morrison, lettings specialist Chard and price index Hometrack - have kindly given their comments on the September market and how they expect the rest of the year to pan out.

John Callcutt, Chief Executive of Crest Nicholson Residential PLC:

Drawing towards the end of the holiday season, the prospect of an increase in interest rates has receded, and I think we are unlikely to see an interest rate increase in the short term. We do believe that an increase in interest rates would adversely affect the market, through its deflationary impact on the economy rather than any material reduction in affordability.

We are starting to see a moderation in the rate of house price inflation, however demand for new homes is very strong in all regions. We do believe that the rate of house price inflation will continue to abate between now and Christmas, coming down to more sustainable levels, later on in the year. The only area which may cause concern is the Central London rental and buy-to-let market, where some modest readjustment is already underway. We expect to see the traditional resilience of the London market reassert itself.

The late summer season is not particularly buoyant but we will see recovery after the summer holidays and before the Christmas season gets under way. The strongest selling periods are after Christmas in the Spring.

At the moment, there is no reason to believe that any of the ingredients are present which caused the housing market to slump in the 1990s. The underlying economic structure, personal affordability and the interest rates are such that the prospects of a severe downturn are highly unlikely in our opinion.

Russell Hill, Managing Director of Hill & Morrison

Against all expectations, August was an active month. Weekend viewings were well up on 2000 and 2001, underlining the fact that the market is neither inflating nor deflating. We brought a small detached country cottage to the market in early August and handled 64 viewings in 2 weeks with best and final offers achieving a substantial uplift on the £199,950 price guide.

August activity levels are continuing into September, creating a positive autumn market. With the turbulence in the stock market, buyers in Hampshire appear to have sought long term solace in their homes, trading up to help future pension planning. Greater realisation that the market has not over heated has also led to a more realistic market place, with anyone seeking too speculative a price unlikely to sell. Job insecurity in certain sectors, namely the City, IT, TMT and certain service industries, coupled with little wage inflation in the south will have an effect on prices achieved. We therefore forecast greater volume and price stability over the rest of year and probably single digit inflation up to 5% if we're lucky.

With Christmas now only 4 months away, vendors who don't receive offers accepted in September and haven't exchanged by October / November, are running the risk of missing out enjoying their roast turkey in the comfort of their new home! It's amazing how quickly time slips by and how long the average exchange of contracts can take (averaging four to eight weeks) so vendors should bring their properties to the market as soon as possible to avoid disappointment!

John Wriglesworth, Housing Economist for Hometrack

The housing market has had a reality check and price rises have slowed down to more sustainable rates. While the slowdown has been marked over recent months, this is partly seasonal. Continuing record low mortgage rates, rising incomes, and a shortage of supply point to further price rises, albeit at a more modest rate. The boom continues and I am confident that there will be no nineties style housing market recession. We are keeping our forecast of 20% house price inflation for this year and 8% for 2003.

Lulu Egerton, Director of Lane Fox's London Residential Division

When it comes to the prime central London market, Monday 2nd September heralded the beginning of what is always an energetic run towards Christmas where prospective purchasers and vendors alike give themselves a short, sharp time frame to settle their housing requirements before the festive season commences. After careful preparation in conjunction with our vendors throughout August, we have just launched a superb selection of houses and flats which are a combination of prime addresses and rare buying opportunities.

Despite the city's current roller-coaster ride, the overriding feeling remains that to invest in bricks and mortar is the safest bet for long term performance in the current economic climate. There continues to be no shortage of liquidity in the market place and there are plenty of high earning professionals, not necessarily city related, who are looking to trade up and use the tax benefits attached to principal residence ownership rather than invest into the stock market.

With a commitment by the Governor of the Bank of England to keep interest rates low and even to possibly reduce them, the property market can only continue to remain in good shape. Interestingly the more the papers conjecture the market is 'too hot' or that it is about 'to crash' or suffer a major 'correction', the more potential vendors are dissuaded from bringing their properties to the market. This brings the supply and demand squeeze into play with buyers chasing the same property and in turn, excellent results for our vendors. If you are thinking of selling, it really is a good time to do so, trading conditions have never been better.

Clemmie Bailey, Head of Lane Fox's London lettings

September has started with a noticeable and welcome increase in demand. Many of those looking in prime central London are those who are nervous of the current financial markets and the 'talk' of the sales market falling and they feel more comfortable with the safer short term option of renting. There is still a healthy stock of rental property and tenants are able to take their time looking. More than ever it is vital that properties are prepared to perfection and priced realistically to ensure that the viewings take place.

Henry Holland-Hibbert, Director of Lane Fox's Country House Department

There has probably been more speculation during 2002 on the continuing rise and potential fall of the residential property market than in many years. The big mortgage suppliers in the mainstream market report increases of up to 20% to date, but it must be remembered that the Country House market is a niche sector and, although there may be examples of individual properties which have achieved such gains, in the most part a modest 10% would be more appropriate.

In basic economic terms, one would feel that the recent downturn in the stock market and the prospects of continuing economic recession in the USA would halt any increases in the property market. However, a continuing period of low interest rates with a Government which is determined to prove that interest rates can be sustained at such a low level prior to entry to Europe has helped the property market considerably. Mortgage borrowing is available on very favourable terms thus enabling more people to purchase at higher levels.

There is also a steady flow of properties coming to the market as vendors take advantage of current price levels and choose 2002 as the optimum time to sell. Demand is strong with many prospective purchasers moving out of London having sold houses at equally high prices.

Our prediction for the next six months is that prices will remain almost static during the autumn in the lead up to Christmas, although we anticipate that there will be increases in the New Year of 2003. It is impossible to predict at what increase the market will rise although we expect it to show a favourable return in excess of inflation.

Barry Manners of lettings specialists Chard

In the last month, we have seen a significant upturn in tenant numbers, in particular from sharers, with an average of anything from 250 to 350 enquiries per week. This level of activity is however seasonal, reflecting students coming back into town and first jobbers starting new placements. To service this demand, the buy to let boom has meant that we now have a large stock of property available to let with rental prices starting to stabilise as the slack is slowly being taken up as the market finds its new equilibrium.

Nevertheless there is a lot of empty property out there and if you have an offer on the table from a solid tenant, our advice is still to take it before they find something else. Press reports of tenants negotiating a 30 to 40% discount on properties is overstated, with the result that some tenants are left wondering why their low offer was turned down. In fact, a number of tenants having given notice on their properties in order to "re-negotiate" a lower rent with their landlord, are now having their bluff called and find themselves looking for somewhere else to live when we find a replacement tenant.

The top end of the market is still wobbly, although there are always exceptions. We have just let a £2,250 per week property at the asking price as it was individual and the tenants wanted it, but by the same token, we currently have a £3,000 per week property under offer at £2,300 after a grand total of 40 viewings.

Tom Nicholson, Managing Director of Try Homes

Thames Valley and North Thames Regions The market is underpinned by stability. There may be a slight adjustment in London where prices have levelled during the last quarter. Prices, however, in the South East are stable. We are confident about the future and we are continuing to see a great deal of interest in new schemes when they come to the market. There is a shortage of new homes in good locations. What is happening is that we are coming back to the era of the homebuyer, away from the investor, which is great news for Try Homes as that's the majority of our market.

 
 
     
     
 

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